New York State Housing Figures for March Show What's Really Going On!

On April 23rd, NYSAR released data showing that sales of existing single-family homes in New York State in March increased by 10.1% (5035 units sold) compared to February (4575), but lagged behind March 2007 – a 29% decrease compared to March of 2007 (7094).

This 10.1% increase in sales exceeds the 2.2% sales increase reported by NAR for the entire Northeast and is much better than the 2% drop reported for the nation.

The March 2008 median selling price was $210,000 in New York State and represents a 6.7% decrease from February 2008, which was $225,000. The March 2008 median selling price is a 14.7% decrease compared to March of 2007 which had a median selling price of $246,150.

31 counties reported gains in median selling price in March 2008 compared to February 2008, while 20 posted gains compared to March 2007. This is typical for our market due to seasonal adjustments - i.e. better weather in the spring and summer for selling real estate.

When you look at history, you realize that the most recent sales boom which picked up momentum in 1998, and with the exception of a dip in 2001, continued to post annual sales growth through 2005. This is all part of the normal and historical housing cycle, as is also the recent downturn. Past downturns have been caused by recessions, years of high interest rates (1980s), S&L crisis, the energy crisis of the early 1970s, etc.

In New York State, unprecedented sales and price growth levels between 2004 to 2006 set the bar at a height that the market could not sustain. During this time, low inventory and high demand caused a number of bidding wars amongst buyers and artificially inflated prices. Now, as the market has slowed, the media is portraying the situation to be worse than it is. Current data suggests that 2008 may be very similar in sales activity, statewide, to 2000-2001, which at the time were considered “up” markets. Also, sellers who have held onto their properties for several years have still experienced the benefit of price appreciation.

According to the 2007 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers in New York State, commissioned by NYSAR, the average homeowner has been in their home for seven years. In March 2001, the statewide median sales price was $114,000, compared to today where it is at $210,000.

New York’s economy and housing market, and more particularly our local housing market cannot be compared to California, Florida, Michigan which dominate the headlines.

The foreclosures and subprime mortgage problems have not been widespread in New York State as they have in other states. According to the RealtyTrac March foreclosure activity report, NY ranked 30th in the nation for the number of foreclosures. NAR conducted a mortgage market study and found only 9% of loans in New York State were subprime. Also, the report stated that the foreclosure rate in the state was only 1.9%.

Unfortunately, the information provided above is not what you will receive from most of the mainstream media. This is why it is so important to be informed about what is going on with the economy and especially the housing market. Most buyers and sellers are gripped with fear and apprehension concerning the housing market. Most of the media is more interested in selling fear than reality about our real estate market. You, however, can calm their fears and offer them a perspective and a solution that will benefit and enrich their lives - because you’re a Realtor®.

The information provided herein is from a memo written by NYSAR President Linda J. Page (along with a few comments I've made) dated 4/23/08 regarding the New York State March Housing Market Data

Bigger Fall After Bigger Gain by NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun

The stream of stories about housing's downturn continue in the media. But I can't stress the reality enough: not all housing markets have suffered to the same extent. We are all well aware of the current weak housing market regions: California, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, and the D.C. region. We should also be aware that these areas were also the places where prices increased the most during the housing boom. Current price declines of 5% to 20% are not as frightening for those who bought a home for the long-term.

Long-term Housing Equity

For example, based on NAR price data, a typical homeowner who bought a property in 2000 would be have accumulated $123,000 in Phoenix, $150,100 in Orlando, $242,800 in Riverside-San Bernardino, and $252,000 in the Washington, D.C. metro region. That does not even include any additional equity that homeowner acquired from paying down mortgage debt from his/her normal amortizing monthly payments. The equity position would be less for those homeowners who took out home equity loans and who took cash-out refinances. (I would personally advise against tapping into housing equity unless it is for investment reasons - like paying for tuition or to open a business).

Data from the Federal Reserve further affirms the long-term housing equity accumulation for homeowners even with recent declines in home prices. Homeowners' net housing equity (home value minus mortgage debt) rose from $6.2 trillion to $9.6 trillion from 2000 to 2007.

No Price Decline in Many Parts of the Country

And as I say, in many parts of the country, there has not been a price decline. NAR data indicate that essentially half of the 150 metro markets studied in the U.S. experienced a price increase throughout the past seven years. Data from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) also show that close to 70 percent of the 287 markets the agency tracks had price increases throughout those same seven years. In rural America, the price declines are even more rare.

Because of different price measurements, the gain could also be different depending on how the price statistics are calculated. Only when the homeowner him or herself sells their home - i.e., has a actual price against which to measure - would they know for sure how much equity was accumulated or lost. The Case-Shiller home price index, by contrast, which looks at a very narrow 20 markets, finds most markets experienced price declines in 2007. Interestingly though, if one uses the Case-Shiller national aggregate price index, the housing equity gains are much higher than under other price data. From 2000 to 2007, a typical U.S. homeowner would have accumulated $103,400 according to Case-Shiller rather than the $75,400 equity gain as is implied by the NAR data.

The Case-Shiller price gain appears outsized and not necessarily what most people would be saying. Perhaps, the methodology of the Case-Shiller price index brings volatile swings that distort underlying trends. So the recent decline in the Case-Shiller price measurement may not be due completely to a decline in home prices but rather to a downward adjustment after illusory high price gains it showed during the market boom. These illusory price gains also fooled Wall Street and global capital providers into believing that the underlying housing collateral was worth more than it actually was. Ask Bear Stearns if it would have made a similar bet if it knew that home values were not as high as indicated by Case-Shiller.

Sure, home prices have fallen measurably in some Florida and California markets - as reflected in both Case-Shiller and NAR data. But broadly speaking the decline in the Case-Shiller price measurement may be just a downward adjustment to compensate for unrealistically strong price gains it recorded during the housing market boom.

Book Reviews: The It Factor

According to author Mark Wiskup, being likeable is something you can learn. Come on, we've all seen people who are very likeable and popular and wondered "how can I be like that?" Some people think that likeable people are just born that way. The author argues otherwise.

Being likeable is learnable. The It Factor: Be the One People Like, Listen to, and Remember (AMACOM, 2007) provides advice for mastering your sales pitch, succeeding with small talk, giving good compliments, and staying away from annoying patronizing patter. The book offers practical suggestions, sample scenarios and even scripts. While some may think such stuff is too rote and even contrived, the truth is that this is training similar to that provided by management experts and trainers like Dale Carnegie Training.

The book discusses 5 Ways to Be More Likeable:

In real estate, being a “people person” is core to our jobs, success and incomes. The ability to create and sustain relationships as well as foster trust is vital. If you don't say the right thing, you can end up blowing the deal. Wiskup offers the following ideas for increasing your likeability in virtually any situation:

1. Offer Specific Compliments. Non-specific compliments like “I’m really happy to meet with you today" appear to be insincere, and perhaps even uncaring. Make sure your compliments are well understood and received by being descriptive and showing that you did your homework. Instead of saying “Great job on acquiring a listing. Keep up the good work,” try saying “Good job on the getting that listing. That listing may prove to be important to our inventory and our ability to make budget and improve our bottom-line. Your ability to acquire this listing speaks of your ability as a listing agent and your concern for our agency."

2. Avoid Small Talk. We all know what small talk is; however, use it to build a conversational foundation and then as a launching point to get more specific in your questions and conversation.

3. Improve your Sales Pitch. Have a number of prepared pitches you can use at any time at conferences, events, and sales appointments and other situations. Be careful not to use industry-specific jargon that isn't understood by the public. Also, describe what you actually do for your customers by saying the following:

“My clients hire me because I…” or “what I'm really good at is…". Give customers and clients specific stories as to how you helped meet people's needs, made sales, overcome problems, etc. Make sure your stories speak to their needs and situation.

4. Don’t Patronize! Some phrases are a big turn-off to listeners. Be careful not to say "I'm sorry" if you don't feel that way. Over-using the word "basically" can sound like you are dumbing down the person you are talking to.

5. Painting Pictures. Use word pictures and illustrations in your conversations to provide clarity, relevance and understanding. Too many coversations use too many idioms, over-used expressions, statistics, etc., that don't promote good conversation and prevent the listener from truly listening and paying attention to you. Make sure when communicating you tell others why something is important to them and make sure whatever you say makes relevant the subject matter to your customer's/client's situation/need.

Those who have ‘it’ are people who are really just like you. However, they have taken the time to study and cultivate some very important communication and relationship skills. They aren't simply better than you, or more blessed, or possess better DNA, etc. This book, and others like it, offers great hope that anyone who makes this a priority, with some time and attention, can acquire the necessary skills and become very effective and even dynamic in their relationships and communication. Yes, you can become a very likeable person - this book shows you how!

About the Author

Mark Wiskup, a former television journalist, is a communication skills coach and international speaker who helps business people master the skills of communicating effectively. He is also the author of Presentation S.O.S. (Business Plus, 2005).

30-Year Rates Jump to 6.03%

REALTOR® Magazine Online Edition -Daily Real Estate News | April 25, 2008

Freddie Mac reports a jump in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.03 percent during the week ended April 24, from 5.88 percent the prior week, marking the first time in six weeks that mortgage rates rose above 6 percent.

The 15-year fixed mortgage rate climbed during the same period, edging up to 5.62 percent from 5.40 percent.

The five-year adjustable mortgage rate increased to 5.68 percent from 5.48 percent, while the one-year adjustable rate shot up to 5.28 percent from 5.10 percent.

Freddie Mac chief economist Frank Nothaft attributes the gains to heightened inflationary concerns.

Source: Baltimore Sun (04/25/08)

Prospecting Without A Sales Pitch

REALTOR® Magazine Online Edition Daily Real Estate News April 22, 2008

Real estate sales associates who obtain most of their business from people within their "sphere of influence" can also get business from strangers without door knocking, cold calling, or advertising.

How? By presenting themselves as sources of objective, insightful information about the local market.

They would be wise to keep their eyes open for business opportunities and keep smiles on their faces when outside the office.

Although it is smart for them to be prepared to talk about the local housing market on a moment's notice, they should be able to do so without delivering a sales pitch. Additionally, real estate professionals should spend a lot of time gaining knowledge of the local market, reading neighborhood newspapers, attending local meetings on such topics as transit oriented development, and making trips to shopping districts and new-home communities.

Such knowledge is more important than a business card or a speech in generating business from strangers.

Source: Realty Times, Jennifer Allan (04/21/08)

Paulsen Sees No Food Shortages in U.S.

Though this topic is not about real estate, it is nevertheless on everyone's mind and is a component and concern in our current economy. That is why I've included this video. Enjoy!

Stimulus Checks Be In The Mail Starting Next Week!

Housing Affordability Improves for Buyers

According to an article in REALTOR® Magazine Online edition -daily News dated April 24, 2008, prices are good news for home buyers, making it increasingly likely that they will be able to find a property at a price that is significantly lower than it would have been two years ago and probably less than the house would have brought just a few months ago.

Real-estate data company Zillow.com estimates that the median value for all homes in the 12 months ending March 31 fell 25 percent in the Las Vegas metro area, 19 percent in Miami and Orlando, and 16 percent in Phoenix. They declined lesser amounts in most other areas.

In the metro areas of Raleigh and Charlotte, N.C., Dallas and Houston, prices are rising — but very modestly.

There’s a “return to normalcy” in the relationship between home prices and incomes, says Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corp. In an analysis of 330 metro areas in the fourth quarter of 2007, National City and Global Insight, an economic research firm, found that home prices were overvalued in relation to household income and other factors in 21 metro areas, down from a peak of 58 metro areas in the second quarter of 2006.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, James R. Hagerty (04/24/08)

NAR Mid-Year Legislative Meetings Agenda

On May 12, 2008, REALTORS® from across the nation will begin arriving in Washington, D.C. for the National Association of REALTORS® Mid-year Legislative Meetings and Trade Expo.

Advancing NAR's legislative agenda on Capitol Hill has taken on increased urgency this year. Despite the national media obsession with portraying real estate as a single national market, NAR will set the record straight for Congress.

What's being done to shore up housing? Many new, good ideas are currently being debated in Congress. These include jump-start tax incentives for homeownership, FHA and Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae changes that rationalize housing finance and ongoing projects to assure authorization of existing programs and develop solutions for new problems those programs don't address. Of particular interest to REALTORS® is a new approach to health insurance for the self-employed. REALTORS® and Congress have a notable opportunity to work together to secure enactment of some important legislation.

Housing 2008: Is the homeownership glass half full or half empty? The answer depends on where you're looking. The motto "Location, Location, Location" still drives the market. Despite the bleak picture painted in the news, sales in nearly half of the nation's housing markets continue to perform well and home values in many of them continue to appreciate. Most mortgages are current, and the vast majority of homeowners have avoided foreclosure. Still, foreclosure rates continue to grow; they're up 60% nationally from a year ago. The challenges in the subprime mortgage market persist, even though many, if not most, of the "bad guy" lenders have been shut down.

REALTORS® - All Together NAR'S 2008 LEGISLATIVE AGENDA: REALTORS® will be pressing Congress for completion of our legislative agenda.

Enact Housing Stimulus Legislation

1. Establish a temporary tax credit or similar tax incentive for home buyers


2. Modernize the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) single-family program


3. Strengthen the safety and soundness of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Improve Access to Affordable Insurance

1. Reauthorize the National Flood Insurance Program


2. Address challenges in the homeowners' insurance market
   

Enact Small Business Health Care Legislation

1. Secure cosponsors for S. 2795, the Small Business Health Options Program (SHOP)
   

Whether or not you will be traveling to Washington, D.C. your voice is needed to promote our goals. Real estate ownership and investment have historically been the drivers of a vibrant economy. Congress and REALTORS® must work together to restore that essential role. Let your Member of Congress and United States Senators know that you support the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® 2008 LEGISLATIVE GOALS:

FHA ReformAction Needed: Enact legislation that would make FHA a more flexible and widely-utilized program for borrowers and lenders alike.

GSE ReformAction Needed: Enact comprehensive GSE reform legislation that preserves the housing mission of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Bank system.

Homebuyer Tax CreditAction Needed: Enact a tax credit that would be widely available for prospective homebuyers. Assure that the credit is available for any property purchased as a principal residence.

National Flood Insurance Program: Action Needed - Reauthorize the Flood Insurance Program before it expires on September 30, 2008.

Property and Casualty InsuranceAction Needed: Enact legislation that enhances the availability and affordability of homeowners' insurance.

Small Business Health InsuranceAction Needed: Enact legislation that will make health insurance more widely available and more affordable for self-employed individuals and owners of small businesses.

Ross’ Economic Commentary for Week Ending 4/25/08

Last week in my article and commentary about the economy and market, I mentioned that a number of reports and indicators were due to be published this week as part of the economic calendar. So, where are we at?

Existing Home Sales for March - this was the first report published this week (4/22) and it showed that existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – were down 2.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.93 million units in March from a level of 5.03 million in February, and remain 19.3 percent below the 6.11 million-unit pace in March 2007. A rise in condo sales in March was offset by a drop in single-family sales. Regionally, sales rose in the Northeast and West but fell in the Midwest and South.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $200,700 in March, down 7.7 percent from a year ago when the median was $217,400. Because the slowdown in sales from a year ago is greater in high-cost areas, there is a downward pull to the national median with relatively higher sales activity in low-cost markets.

However, here in the Northeast, existing-home sales in the rose 2.2 percent to an annual pace of 910,000 in March, but are 18.8 percent below March 2007. The median price in the Northeast was $284,300, up 4.6 percent from a year ago.

Durable Goods Orders – this was reported on Thursday 4/24 and revealed that total durable goods orders, according to a report released by the Department of Commerce, decreased 0.3% or $0.7 billion to $212.2 billion and represents a decrease for the third consecutive month. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders excluding transportation rose 1.5% despite calls for a 0.6% increase in March. This was somewhat of a surprise. Many economists and businesses expect that a rise in foreign demand will push up demand and help stimulate orders and manufacturing activity overall. Based upon this report, as well as other indicators, many economists say the economy is stabilizing and predict that the nation will avoid a recession.

New Home Sales - According to a report released this week, new single family home sales fell in March to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 526,000, which is 8.5-percent below the February sales rate (575,000 sales) and 36.6-percent below the March 2007 sales tally of 830,000 homes, according to a new report from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Northeast suffered the steepest drop of any region, of 19.4%, according to the report.

Jobless Claims – The market was surprised to hear that the Labor Department's reported this week that claims for unemployment benefits actually declined by 33,000 last week to 342,000. Economists had predicted claims would rise by 3,000 over last month’s number. This is good news.

Consumer Sentiment - The University of Michigan & Reuters consumer sentiment index, reported on Friday 4/25, dropped to 62.6 for April from 69.5 a month earlier. It was the lowest reading since the early 1980s as Americans struggle with rising energy, food prices, shrinking incomes and decreasing home values.

On another front, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the government would begin sending out tax rebate checks to more than 8 million Americans starting April 28. The checks, which were originally scheduled for delivery in early May, will provide economic relief amounting to $600 to $1200 dollars per individual and are expected to create more than 500,000 jobs for in the economy. Paulson said approximately $50 billion will be sent out in May.

As I mentioned last week, expect that with seasonal adjustments, the housing numbers will increase in the months ahead. However, there will be short to intermediate term volatility. While we are not out of the woods yet, as I have said many times in the recent past, the economy will stabilize this year and begin a rebound later this year with good news on the economic and housing fronts being reported by year’s end, if not before that.

Please read the articles in this blog written by NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun to understand why a rebound in the economy and housing markets will take place and is not simply the stuff of wishful thinking.

The Week Ahead In News

Ross’ Economic Commentary: Indicators Show a Mixed Bag Regarding the Economy:

The last several months have show the economy on a downward path due to the demise of the housing market, rapid rise of the commodities market and the fall of the dollar against other currencies. The reaction by the Federal Reserve, Treasury, President Bush, and Congress has been has been impressive to watch with a vast amount of liquidity released in the market, aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, legislative relief, changes in standards made by government backed lenders, etc.

Though we are not out of the woods yet, there are some positive signs emerging at this time. The Conference Board, a research group, reported on 4/17/08 that the index of leading economic indicators actually went up in March. The index seeks to predict the rise or fall of the economy over the next 3 to 6 months. However, the Conference Board index also shows an annual rate of decline for the last 6 month period from October 2007 to March 2008. This is not a surprise, unless of course you live in a cave with no access to the outside world.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent economic forecasting institute based in NY, reported that’s its Weekly Leading Index showed a slightly positive increase over the prior week. This index is a gauge of future predicted national economic growth and annualized growth rate. The rise is due to lower interest rates and higher stock market prices. However, the rise was not as much as it otherwise could have been because of soft home sales and construction along with higher unemployment claims being made.

The Atlanta District of the Federal Reserve reported this week that economic activity in its district contracted; however, this is no surprise and is in line with other parts of the country. The Atlanta Fed’s “Beige Book”, as it is called, reported slowdowns in the real estate and retail sectors. Again, this was not a surprise to anyone. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s General Economic Index fell in March to its lowest level since 2001. The same index has shown contraction of the economy for all of 2008 – once again, no surprise.

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet again this month and is considering another short-term interest rate cut. There is some sentiment that they will, in fact, cut rates again; however, there is also some bias that they will not do so. If they cut rates yet again, it will be because there is still generalized economic weakness and threat to the economy. If they do not cut rates, it is because they believe the economy is stabilizing and perhaps turning the corner. They may also not cut rates again based upon concerns that doing so would be inflationary and contribute to rising prices and therefore have the potential effect of further dampening the economic recovery. Stay tuned!

It was also reported that demand for cash and reserves by large commercial lenders from the Federal Reserve decreased this past week. The findings suggest that not only is lending down but that lenders don’t want to lend and because companies are showing signs of being recessed because of sluggish demand for goods and services.

Confidence among small businesses fell in March to their lowest level in the last 28 years. This was shown by the latest report from the National Federation of Business Optimism Index. You may wonder why that is important to real estate. The answer is simply that if businesses don’t hire people, in turn, people don’t buy real estate. Companies are cutting back on expansion plans, hiring and productivity as demand for products weakens. This sounds recessionary and serves as one indicator (but only one) of a looming recession.

This is in tandem with the Labor Department reporting that application for unemployment benefits rose this week to a four year high. However, in context, the four-week average of unemployment claims is slightly down. In reality, it is stable – that is good news.
There were other reports this week that factory production in New York State is stabilizing. The New York Fed reported on 4/15 that its manufacturing index was up for April compared to March when it fell to its lowest level on record.

Most economists now see a contraction in economic growth and activity for the entire first half of 2008. However, they also believe there will be a pick-up in the second half of the year. This is consistent with what Lawrence Yun, NAR's Chief Economist has been saying for a long time. Hmm! No wonder he is one of the most reliable economists (the 5th most reliable economist according to USA Today).

This coming week will feature some reports and indicators on the economic calendar being made public. The first report will be made on 4/22 about Existing House Sales. It is expected that the numbers which surveys the prior month of March will be down compared to prior months. On Thursday 4/24, Durable Goods will probably report an increase. At least, this is what is expected. On the same day, the Labor Department will release the Jobless Claim numbers, which are expected to be up again compared to this week; however, it isn’t expected that claim numbers will greatly increase. Also on Thursday, there will be a report about new home sales, which is expected to slow a decline. While houses in many parts of the nation are more affordable, credit is tighter and this is the reason why there isn’t an increase in purchasing. Lastly, on Friday 4/25, the University of Michigan will release its survey of consumer sentiment. It is expected to remain relatively unchanged compared to last month’s numbers.

Expect that the numbers reported in the weeks ahead, as well as next month, will show signs of gains and improvements. This will be due to seasonal changes that will contribute to some economic growth, which is the case every year at this time,as well as a possible tepid improvement of consumer confidence. It will take some months before the full effect of any economic stimulus and injection of liquidity in the market will be felt. However, it will happen and it is therefore only a matter of time, provided that there is no further slippage in the economy.

Quote(s) of the Week Concerning Initiative

"Success seems to be connected with action. Successful people keep moving. They make mistakes, but they don't quit."

— Conrad HiltonHilton Hotels


"The right man is the one who seizes the moment."

— Johann Wolfgang von Goethe


"A man who has to be convinced to act before he acts is not a man of action. You must act as you breathe."

— Georges Clemmanceau


"I would rather regret the things I have done than the things I have not."

— Lucille Ball


"If you don't make dust, you eat dust."

— Motto of Jack A. MacAllister


"If there is a trait which does characterize leaders it is opportunism. Successful people are very often those who steadfastly refuse to be daunted by disadvantage and have the ability to turn disadvantage to good effect. They are people who seize opportunity and take risks. Leadership then seems to be a matter of personality and character."

— John VineyDrive

How To Work More Efficiently

How Not To Sell!

NYSAR News

Foreclosures continue to rise in NY

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has reported that there are 141,934 subprime mortgages in New York State with nearly 20 percent of them in danger of foreclosure. Regional statistics released this past week reveal that, while foreclosure activity in the mid-Hudson Valley has increased in the past year, it remains well below the national rate. In Orange County, 89 homes received a foreclosure filing during March of 2008, up from 14 in March 2007. Ulster County received 33 filings, up from 31 during the same time last year and Sullivan County had 18 filings, up from 7 in 2007. The lower Hudson Valley has not fared as well. Westchester County ranked sixth in the state among the list of counties with homes in foreclosure, Rockland County ranked 13th and Putnam County ranked 20th. In the Capital Region, mortgage lenders filed 646 foreclosure notices during the first three months of 2008, up from 162 a year ago. During the first quarter of 2008, there were 174 foreclosures filed on Staten Island, up from just 34 one year ago. These figures reflect the highest per capita foreclosure rate of any of the five boroughs of New York City.


State offers help to struggling homeowners

To address the mortgage crisis, the state Legislature included $25 million for housing counseling and legal services in the 2008-09 state budget. Last year SONYMA created the "Keep the Dream" program with $100 million available for mortgage refinancing. To date, only three households in the state have refinanced through the program with just four more applications pending. A spokesman for the program called the limitations of the program a hindrance. Homeowners more than 60 days past due on mortgage payments and those with home values less than their mortgages are disqualified.

The information provided herein is from NYSAR's website @ www.nysar.com.

Manhattan Real Estate Situation Offers Insight Into Our Own Local Market

President Says Economic Recovery is on the Way

Comic About Life Before Blogging

NYSAR's Advocacy Efforts Protect Realtors® from Adverse New York State Budget Proposals

The state Legislature gave final approval last week to a 2008-09 state budget that increases fees and taxes for New Yorkers by $1.5 billion, provides record spending for education and adds an additional $1.6 billion for economic development projects across the state including $200 million towards affordable housing initiatives. The budget, which holds Realtors® harmless, did not include any anti-Realtor® provisions.

Thanks to NYSAR's advocacy efforts at the Capitol, the $121.7 billion spending plan eliminated a number of anti-Realtor® proposals including mortgage recording fees and transfer fee increases. Also, there were no real estate license fee increases. The plan also includes $25 million in grants to provide legal assistance and counseling for homeowners facing foreclosure due to the unscrupulous practices of the mortgage industry.

There is still work to be done in Albany following the budget adoption. The association continues to push for a number of initiatives including commission protection, property tax relief, and barring all sex offenders from holding real estate licenses.

You are a vital part of our lobbying team, and there are several ways to become directly involved in the process to advance the New York Realtor® legislative agenda. Plan now to attend the annual NYSAR Lobby Day in Albany on Tuesday, June 10, to assist your peers in educating your elected representatives about Realtor® issues.

Additionally, as the session progresses, you will receive "Call for Action" e-mails asking you to contact your legislators in support of our collective efforts. Please take the few minutes required to respond. The collective voices of New York's 61,000 Realtor® creates a formidable force in Albany. By working together, we are able to accomplish much for our industry.

Your financial support of the REALTORS Political Action Committee is also vital to our collective success in Albany.

This article is from a special state budget report from NYSAR’s Government Affairs Department.

NAHB Says We Are Now In Recession

David Seiders, the Chief Economist for the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), the nation’s largest home builder trade group stated that the country is now in a recession. In a statement issued today (4/15/08), he said: "It's now clear that we have entered what we anticipate will be a mild recession, running through the first half of this year, and there are substantial downside risks to this economic scenario."

Seiders expects housing starts to drop 30% in 2008. He has asked Congress to implement a temporary home-buyer tax credit as well as to revamp the FHA and reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. He believes a temporary home-buyer tax credit is probably the best way to stop the downward trend in housing prices and restoring consumer confidence in the housing market because it would get buyers back into the market.

The NAHB announced in February that it would freeze contributions from its political action committee to congressional candidates because they "felt that over the past six months Congress and the administration have not adequately addressed the underlying economic issues that would help to stabilize the housing sector and keep the economy moving forward."

Also, released today are the results of the latest Housing Market Index which is conducted by the NAHB. This index is considered a general and relevant short-form analysis of the current and future state of home sales and new home building activity. It is based upon a survey of builders as a predictor of where the housing market is headed. A score of less than 50 on the index, for any given month, indicates that more builders view housing market conditions as “poor” instead of a score above 50 which indicates that builders view the market as “good”.

The index for February, March and April has remained at 20, indicating that most builders surveyed view the market as “poor”. The low point for the index was in December of 2007 when the index was at 18, the lowest level the survey ever reached since 1985 when the survey was created.

It is anticipated that the index will rise with both the season increase in real estate activity now that spring is upon us and will also increase in the 3rd and 4th quarters of this year when it is anticipated that economic and housing market conditions will improve.

White House Presents Plan to Aid Sub-Prime Borrowers

FHA Commissioner Brian Montgomery announced a plan on April 9 that would allow subprime borrowers who have missed a few mortgage payments to refinance through the agency.

Approximately 100,000 borrowers would be assisted by the program, which also would urge lenders to write down the mortgage debt in accordance with home-price declines. To qualify, borrowers who missed three payments in the last year would need 10 percent equity; and borrowers who missed two payments would need 3 percent equity. While consumer groups criticize the plan for failing to help a larger segment of homeowners facing foreclosure, Democrats say it indicates the White House understands that a more aggressive stance is needed to ease the housing crisis.

This article is from NYSAR's website @www.nysar.com and is based upon a more detailed article from The Washington Post (04/10/08) P. D1; Montgomery, Lori; ElBoghdady, Dina

Senate Passes Housing Relief Bill

The [U.S.] Senate has passed a housing relief bill on a vote of 84-to-12 that shows bipartisan consensus; but the Bush administration opposes the package that will cost $15 billion over 10 years, and Senate Democrats add that they expect the House to improve on the legislation. The proposal would provide tax breaks for home builders and other businesses, a $7,000 tax credit for people who buy foreclosed homes, $150 million for counseling borrowers, and $4 billion for local governments to buy foreclosed properties. Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) and Barack Obama (D-Ill.) were campaigning and did not vote on the measure; but both issued statements saying the legislation does not do enough to help borrowers who could lose their homes to foreclosure.

This article is from NYSAR's website @ www.nysar.com and is based upon a more detailed article from New York Times (04/11/08) P. C3; Herszenhorn, David M.

NAR and Industry Partners Agree on Syndication Standard for Distributing Real Estate Listings

WASHINGTON, April 11, 2008 -

The National Association of Realtors® and other industry members of the Real Estate Standards Organization have unanimously approved a draft standardized data format for distributing real estate listing information.

Real Estate Transaction Standard, an industry effort initiated by NAR and maintained by RESO, simplifies the process of sending real estate information by allowing brokers and MLSs to send their listing data to multiple real estate advertising Web sites without dealing with different data formats.

The standard was drafted and unanimously approved by a RESO working group composed of NAR’s Center for REALTOR® Technology and many of the real estate industry’s leading publishers and consumers of real estate listing data. They include MLS Assistant, MLS Listings Inc., MLSPIN, New Jersey MLS, TREND MLS, Move Inc. (operator of Realtor.com®), Bridge Interactive, Bainbridge, Cevado Technologies, CLRsearch, eNeighborhoods, eShowings, FBS Data Systems, Google, Homescape, Marketlinx, Oodle, Point2, PropBot, Prudential Preferred CRE, RealEstate.com, Realtracs, ThreeWide, Trulia, Vast, Yahoo! and Zillow.

The partnership of MLSs, vendors and real estate brokers came together to develop the standardized data format because they understand the business and technology needs of Realtors® today and their desire to get property information to home buyers faster and more efficiently.

“Realtors® are industry innovators and understand that more consumers than ever are seeking real estate information online,” said Mark Lesswing, NAR chief technology officer and senior vice president. “By collaborating with our RESO partners to standardize the data formats, we are making it easier for Realtors® to feed their clients’ property listings to multiple real estate sites in one format, saving them time and money.”

The draft standard will be implemented immediately by several of the partner organizations. Following their feedback, a final draft will be presented and voted on during a meeting of the partners in August.

NAR’s CRT was established to provide technology leadership, guidance and assistance for its members. CRT makes available informed industry insight, research and open-source applications through its mission of implementation, advocacy and information.

This article is from NAR's website at http://www.realtor.org/.

Quote(s) of the Week

This week's selection of quotes is on the topic of courage. I hope you ruminate upon these.


"Courage is rightly esteemed the first of human qualities . . . because it is the quality which guarantees all others."

— Winston Churchill
British Prime Minister


"You gain strength, courage, and confidence by every experience in which you really stop to look fear in the face."

— Eleanor Roosevelt
Former First Lady of the United States


"The desire for safety stands against every great and noble enterprise."

— Tacitus
Roman historian


"I love the man that can smile in trouble, that can gather strength from distress, and grow brave by reflections."

— Thomas Paine


"Only be you strong, and very courageous, then you will make your way prosperous, and then you will have good success."

— The Bible - Joshua 1:7-8


"There is nothing in the world so much admired as a man who knows how to bear unhappiness with courage."

— Seneca
Roman Philosopher

National Association of Realtors® Centennial Video - Part 2

National Association of Realtors® Centennial Video - Part 1

How To Differentiate Yourself As An Agent

This article is from REALTOR® Magazine - Online Interactive Edition

Daily Real Estate News for April 11, 2008

Prove You're Not Like the Rest

In a crowded real estate field, you must be a good marketer in order to generate business.

To snag the customer, you've got to find a way to stand out, experts say. "Real estate is an emotional business and, because the market has changed so much, visibility is often more important than ability," says The Personal Marketing Company Chief Marketing Officer Rob Murry.

Here are some of Murry's tips for making yourself known:

Appeal to emotions. To distinguish yourself from the competition, create a brand that makes an emotional connection with your target audience. Once prospects find a real estate practitioner whose personality they like or with whom they can connect, they are more likely to select that agent over a competitor.

Be consistent. An agent's brand, once established, should be applied consistently in all of his or her marketing media in order to attract business, entrench brand recognition, and keep the agent in the forefront of house-hunters' minds. "This is all about perception," according to Murry.

Market your specialty. "Consumers think that all real estate agents are the same. Because they don't see any differentiators, they don't see the perceived value, and are more likely to want to pay less if they think they can get the same thing somewhere else. But when you're a specialist, you have a unique value and are known for something specific. Position yourself as a specialist and market yourself as such to get the business."

Source: RISMedia, Beth McGuire (04/10/08)

Message from Fed Chief About Lenders

This article is from REALTOR® Magazine - Online Interactive Edition
Daily Real Estate News for April 11, 2008

Fed Chief's Message: Think About Future

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Thursday urged policymakers to strengthen oversight of mortgage lenders in order to prevent future financial crises.

"We do not have the luxury of waiting for markets to stabilize before we think about the future," Bernanke said in a speech in Richmond, Va.

Bernanke urged increased transparency, improved risk management and better coordination among regulators.

Better consumer protections and disclosures also would help prevent a repeat of current mortgage and credit problems, Bernanke said.

Many economists believe the Fed will again lower rates when it meets later this month.

Source: The Associated Press, Jeannine Aversa (04/10/08)

Forecast Regarding Home Sales for Next Few Months

The following article is from REALTOR® Magazine -Interactive Online Edition

Daily Real Estate News for April 8, 2008

NAR: Existing-Home Sales to Level Off

Little change is expected in existing-home sales over the next few months, before improving notably during the second half of the year, according to the latest forecast by the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the market will come into clearer focus this summer.

“Existing home sales could start to show a sustained increase within a few months, unless there are some additional economic problems or excessive inflationary pressure,” he says. “We’re looking for essentially stable sales in the near term, before higher mortgage loan limits translate into more sales in high-cost markets. The wider access to affordable credit should increase sales activity notably this summer as pent-up demand begins to be met.”

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in February, slipped 1.9 percent to 84.6, from an upwardly revised reading of 86.2 in January. The index was 21.4 percent lower than the February 2007 index of 107.6.

“The slip in pending home sales implies we’re not out of the woods yet, though an era of successive deep sales declines appears to be over,” Yun says.

By the Region

Here’s what the index reveals across the nation with existing-home sales:

Northeast: rose 3.2 percent in February to 71.8 but remains 25.4 percent below a year ago.

Midwest: declined 3.7 percent to 82.7 and is 17.4 percent lower than February 2007.

South: fell 5.5 percent in February to 85 and is 30.3 percent below a year ago.

West: dropped 9.8 percent in February to 84.6 and is 17.1 percent below February 2007.

Home Sales Forecast

Existing-home sales are likely to rise from an annual pace of 4.9 million in the first quarter to 5.9 million in the fourth quarter. With relatively weak activity in the first part of the year, existing-home sales for all of 2008 is forecast at 5.39 million, increasing 6.6 percent to 5.74 million in 2009.

“Exceptionally weak home sales related to jumbo loans problems will depress home prices in the first half of the year, but steady liquidity improvements in the conforming jumbo-loan market will help prices recover in the second half of the year,” Yun says.

The aggregate existing-home price will probably ease by 1.4 percent to a median of $215,800 for all of 2008 before rising 3.7 percent to $223,800 next year.

Yun says that there will continue to be wide variations in regional housing market conditions.

“Some parts of the country that can expect improvement include the Northeastern region and the oil-patch states of Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Arkansas,” he says.

With lower interest rates and flat home prices in many areas, NAR’s housing affordability index is forecast to rise 14 percentage points to 127 in 2008.

New-home sales are projected to fall 25.7 percent to 576,000 in 2008 before rising 4.6 percent to 602,000 next year. Housing starts, including multifamily units, are estimated to drop 26.3 percent to 999,000 this year, and slip another 0.5 percent to 994,000 in 2009. The median new-home price will probably fall 3.6 percent to $238,400 in 2008, and then rise 4 percent next year to $247,800.

Other predictions on factors that can impact the housing market:

Mortgage rates: 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, which has fluctuated recently, should average 5.8 percent in the second and third quarters, but trend up to an average of 6.3 percent in 2009.

Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product: expected to be 1.4 percent in 2008 and 2.4 percent next year.

Unemployment rate: forecast to average 5.4 percent this year and 5.6 percent in 2009.

Inflation: (as measured by the Consumer Price Index) is projected at 3.4 percent in 2008 and 2.2 percent next year. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is likely to grow 1.2 percent this year and 3.0 percent in 2009.

“The economy will not grow in first half of the year,” Yun says. “However, the combination of recent fiscal stimulus enactment and the lagged impact of monetary policy will help jump start the economy in the second half.”

—REALTOR® magazine online
For more economic news and research reports, visit NAR's Research division at REALTOR.org.

Top Tips for Hosting A Successful Open House

This article is from REALTOR® Magazine - Interactive Online Edition - Daily Real Estate News for April 9, 2008

Secret Formula for Open Houses

There's a secret formula for handling open houses successfully, says real estate marketing expert Denise Lones of the Lones Group Inc. in Bellingham, Wash.
Do prep work before the event. Do research of nearby home sales, other properties on the market in the general vicinity, and local schools as well as ensure the property is in top condition.

Promote. Advertise open houses online and through traditional outlets such as the newspaper and using yard signs.

Don't hide in the kitchen. Present yourself professionally and be visible at the open house. Open the door as guests arrive and offer to answer any questions. But on the other hand, don't be overbearing. Avoid bombarding visitors with questions about their buying status. Even individuals touring the home just to see what it looks like might hire the agent later on, if a good first impression is made.

Let the snoops snoop. Think an open house visitor is just "snooping"? Treat them just as if they're a serious buyer while they're at your event. They may be snooping around for a real estate agent, after all. Or if they live nearby, they may remember you in a positive light when they're looking to sell.

Give visitors something that they'll truly value as they search for homes. For example, Lones prepares a book that includes the open house listing and other homes for sale in the area that are priced $50,000 above and $50,000 under the featured property. The book should include directions to each listing, as well as pictures and a space for prospective buyers to jot down notes for comparisons.

Source: Realty Times, Denise Lones (04/08/08)

Legislative/Governmental Affairs in Washington

Federal News

U.S. Senate passes Foreclosure Prevention Act

The U.S. Senate backed a bipartisan housing bill that includes both tax breaks and FHA modernization designed to help homeowners and businesses cope with the troubled housing market. The measure (H.R. 3221) combines large tax breaks for homebuilders, a $7,000 tax credit for people who buy foreclosed properties and $4 billion in grants to help communities purchase and repair abandoned properties. The bill also includes $10 billion in tax-free mortgage revenue bonds to help homeowners refinance subprime loans and $150 billion for pre-foreclosure counseling and stronger loan disclosure requirements. New York’s Senior Senator Schumer voted in support of the bill. The bill now goes before the House and White House where leaders will negotiate a final plan.

Rep. Fossella unveils homebuyer tax credit legislation

In an effort to boost the housing market and spur economic growth, New York Congressman Vito Fossella (R-NY13) recently unveiled bipartisan legislation to provide a temporary homebuyer federal tax credit of $10,000. This legislation (H.R. 5670) would apply to principal residences and the tax benefit could only be claimed once by taxpayers. The measure targets modest home purchases that meet the new GSE conforming loan limits passed by the Economic Stimulus Package, or 125% of median home price, not to exceed $729,750.

This update on government and politics is taken from a weekly publication from NYSAR’s Government Affairs Department. REALTOR members and staff are urged to share this information as appropriate and reprint it in membership publications. Please note that all questions, comments and concerns should be directed to govt@nysar.com as the sending address for this update is not monitored.

Legislative/Governmental Affairs Update from Albany

At The Capital

Legislators managed to pass a final state budget this past week. Highlights of the 2008-09 spending plan are outlined below.

Fiscal Overview

The state Legislature gave final approval this week to a 2008-09 state budget that increases fees and taxes for New Yorkers by $1.5 billion, provides record spending for education and adds an additional $1.6 billion for economic development projects across the state including $200 million towards affordable housing initiatives.

The budget will total $80.5 billion in state spending - about $1.1 billion less than former Gov. Eliot Spitzer proposed but about 4.5 percent more than the prior fiscal year. Because of lower spending projections in fiscal 2007-08, budget analysts lowered the state's overall 2008-09 budget, including federal aid, from $124 billion to $121.7 billion. Still, the total budget represents nearly a 5 percent spending increase.

Real estate-related highlights from the 2008-09 state budget

• No licensing fee increases for real estate professionals.
• No increases to the state mortgage recording tax or the state’s real estate transfer tax.

The final budget did not include two anti-REALTOR proposals that NYSAR fought against that were initially submitted in Governor Spitzer’s executive budget:

• Spitzer’s plan to increase the transfer fee imposed during real estate closings for sales over $175,000. Under his plan, the real property transfer fee would rise on a sliding scale from $75 up to $400 for residential properties based on sale price. This increase was intended to improve the efficiency of local property tax administration and other Office of Real Property Services operations.

• Elimination of Spitzer’s plan to provide counties the option to increase the county clerk recording fee from $5 to $20 and the additional per-page filing fee from $3 to $5. The increase in these fees was expected to help counties raise an extra $70 million and $27 million for NYC.

The final budget will provide $25 million in grants through the state Division of Housing and Community Renewal (DHCR) for legal services and financial counseling for homeowners facing default and foreclosure due to the unscrupulous practices of the mortgage industry.
Other budget highlights

The budget includes:

• $1.5 billion in new taxes and $205 million in new fees.
• A record $1.75 billion increase in school aid, to about $20 billion, including a guarantee that no district will receive less than a 3 percent increase.
• A $5 million increase in the Environmental Protection Fund to $255 million. The EPF is paid for though revenues collected from the state real estate transfer tax.

This update on government and politics in New York State is taken from a weekly publication published by NYSAR’s Government Affairs Department. REALTOR members and staff are urged to share this information as appropriate and reprint it in membership publications. Please note that all questions, comments and concerns should be directed to govt@nysar.com as the sending address for this update is not monitored.

The Napoleon Dynamite of Real Estate

Personally, I am not a Napoleon Dynamite fan - he puts me to sleep! However, my kids are and I realize that some of you out there may like, or even, practically worship Napoleon.

While the guy in this video isn't actually Napoleon Dynamite, he is the equivalent. So, if you like dry humor portraying a copeless/hopeless person, this is just the thing for you.

Honestly, I wouldn't have posted it if I didn't think it was funny. So, enjoy...

The Marx Brothers Teach You How To Do A Real Estate Auction

Lawrence Yun - The Video Interview

What Some People Are Thinking About The Economy, Etc.

How to Handle Kitchen Clutter Before the Next Showing

Get Ready For The Housing Market Recovery!

The Forecast: A Better Second Half

By Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist

Rewind back to 1998. That's 10 years ago when you were younger and more energetic. You never imagined that you today would be so different from the person that you projected yourself to be a decade ago. Plans get squashed, chance-events appeared, and gut decisions interestingly turned out to be right. That's the unpredictable journey of life.

From 1998 to today, 25 million more people are living in America. Employment grew by 11 million. The typical family income grew from $47,000 to nearly $60,000. The stock market roller coaster ride can be quite scary, but the Dow Jones Index moved up from 9,000 (an all-time high at that time) to today's 12,500 or so. Interest rates are much lower today. Home prices are higher, but the housing affordability index - which takes into account people's ability to buy a median-priced home at prevailing mortgage rates - is quite comparable between the periods. The index was 137 in February 1998 compared to 135 in February 2008.

More people, more jobs, more income, more stock market wealth, nearly the same affordability conditions … yet current home sales activity matches the level of 1998. No one was shouting about excessive home sales activity back then. However, some today are predicting even lower sales.

The current 10-year low home sales activity can partly be justified by the virtual non-existence of subprime loans, which accounted for about 20 percent of mortgage originations in recent years. But subprime loans were essentially non-existent 10 years ago also. Conforming and government backed FHA and VA loans have tighter underwriting standards - but those standards were also pretty much in place 10 years ago. What is limiting housing demand, therefore, cannot be explained by fundamentals. The soft housing demand is psychological. It is a crisis of confidence.

Buyer confidence can be fixed quickly with a financial inducement: a tax credit for homebuyers. D.C. homebuyers enjoy it; why not apply it for the whole country? Given that the housing slowdown is pushing the economy to the brink of recession, why not resuscitate the sector that is being held back by not by fundamentals but by pessimism.

Though February closed sales rose ever so modestly, the latest slippage in the pending home sales index to 84.6 from 86.2 in the prior month points to continued soft sales activity through early spring and possibly through early summer. Granted, an era of successive deep sales declines appears to be over, but the 10-year low sales activity is unjustifiable.

Fannie and Freddie have not yet participated in what was previously the jumbo loan market. Though legally permissible now, they have not yet entered the market due to the need to reprogram software and rewrite paper documents. They have indicated mid-April as the likely starting point for jumbo loans to be picked up in bulk from lenders, which would then replenish lenders' capital so as to permit more loan originations at favorable interest rates. Once that happens, expect a lift in median home prices which have been artificially depressed to date due to very few jumbo loans and very few expensive home sales.

With an anticipated pickup in home sales (or a guaranteed pickup in home sales with the homebuyer tax credit) in the second half of the year, the economy will also begin to grow. The combination of fiscal stimuli and the usual lagged impact of monetary policy will further help jump start the economy in the second half.

U.S. exports have been on a tear and that will help keep the economy from formally slipping into a recession in the first half despite the soft housing sector. January's exports soared to $148 billion, up 16.6 percent from a year ago: nearly a doubling of exports at the turn of the century. Without exports, the U.S. economy would be contracting at 1 to 2 percent rate. Unemployment is rising, but the formal output contraction will be avoided.

Another factor that will help the economy avoid recession is slim business inventory conditions. Housing inventories are high, but business inventories are low. The current wholesale inventory-to-sales ratio of 1.09 is at an all-time low while retail inventory-to-sales ratio of 1.48 is only a tad higher from all-time low mark of 1.45. Going into the last recession in 2001, the inventory-to-sales ratios had been 1.29 for wholesale trade and 1.59 for retail trade. Low business inventory conditions mean companies do not to sharply cut back production from worries over inventory overhang.

The bottom line on the economy is for zero growth in the first half, but 2 percent economic expansion in the second half. The unemployment rate will reach 5.7 percent by the election time because of the lagged impact of zero economic growth in the first half. Rising unemployment mitigates inflationary pressures and consumer price index will decelerate significantly by the year end.

Rising home sales and rising home prices at the end of the year will mark one heck of a recovery after so many unprecedented disruptions. The foreclosure starts will begin to drift lower by then. The Fed, Congress, and the White House all need to be commended in getting America rolling again.

This article is from NAR's website @ http://www.realtor.org/ and can be found there along with other articles and commentaries about thr real estate industry and market.

Legislative Update from NYSAR for Week Ending 4/4/08

Government Affairs update for the week ending April 4, 2008
At The Capital

Senate passes NYSAR-supposed legislation
The following action on real estate-related legislation occurred recently in Albany:

Commission Protection Act (A.7519/S.4874) - This past week the Senate unanimously passed the NYSAR-supported Commission Protection Act. The bill addresses the clear need to strengthen the affidavit of entitlement law in an open, predictable and fair manner to all involved parties.

Sex Offender Ban (A.1269/S.1531) - The Senate also passed the NYSAR-supported bill to ban misdemeanor sex offenders from obtaining or holding a real estate license.

NYSAR staff will continue to advocate the importance of these pieces of legislation with lawmakers in the Assembly as the bills remain in the Assembly Judiciary Committee.

Lawmakers still passing state budget

State legislators began passing budget bills this past week. While they missed the Tuesday deadline for an “on time” budget, they are moving forward. Lawmakers passed the health budget bill to increase aid to various healthcare facilities. The bill includes a tax hike on health insurance policies to subsidize spending. In addition, the state budget will include a $29.6-million increase in aid for cities across the state to help offset local property taxes. Several issues have bogged down the process including: how to fairly allocate aid to school districts, Mayor Bloomberg’s plan to charge motorists $8 to enter Manhattan and how to technically generate enough revenue to pay for the state’s $124 billion spending plan. Budget details have been kept mostly under wraps, keeping members of the public and lawmakers themselves in the dark. NYSAR staff continues to sift through budget bills as they become available to the public. At this point, it appears that no new real estate-related taxes have been included in the spending plan released thus far. Staff will continue to review budget bills as they are released to the public over the next few days.

This article is from NYSAR's website @ www.nysar.com and can be found under the Governmental Affairs section.

The Number of Foreclosures Are Increasing (With Some Perspective) - Nationally and Locally

The front page of the Daily Star on 4/5&6/08 carried an article titled "Homesick - Foreclosures on the rise in Otsego and Delaware" written by Denise Richardson. Yes, we all know this don't we and pretty much knew this would be happening? But let's discuss it for a moment.

First, among other things, the Daily Star stated that the number of foreclosures being filed in both counties is increasing. According to the article, 31 cases (I take that to mean Lis Pendens filed)have been filed in the first three quarters of this year vs. 103 for all of 2007, in Otsego County. Delaware County, as stated in the article did not give a specific number of filings, yet said the number was "very high". Because I do abstracting and title insurance work for my employer, Harry W. Hawley, Inc., agent for Chicago Title, I am at the Delaware County Clerk's Office almost every business day of the week. According to my count, there are about 40 Lis Pendens filed by mortgagees (lenders) vs. mortgagors (borrowers) so far this year, as of 4/1/08. In 2007, there were approximately 128 total with about 30 mortgage related Lis Pendens in the first quarter of that year. So, while the number is "on the rise", to date, the number of forclosures in the first quarter of last year (30+/-) compared to (40+/-) in the first quarter this year, is not a drastic difference. The Daily Star article went further to state that there 96 foreclosures in Otsego County in 2006. There is no denying that there is an trend upward; however, it is not as dramatic as it seems to imply from the Daily Star article.

On balance, the Daily Star article of 4/5/08 is a good one. It talks about the mortgage industry in general, the causes of our current dilemma, gives some information provided by Douglas Gulotty, President and CEO of Wilber Bank. Fortunately, Wilber has so far weathered the storm very well - the article states that based upon the 1100-1200 residential mortgages Wlber has, only one is currently in foreclosure. The article says that Wilber doesn't have any subprime mortgages and, by reputation, I know them to be a very conservative lender. However, Gulotty did say that there are delinquencies regarding car loan payments because a number of individuals and families are currently financially stressed.

The article also quotes Patrick O'Rourke, a housing counselor with Quaranta Housing Services Center, part of Opportunities for Chenango in Norwich and provides some good guidance and advice for borrowers if they are having difficulties paying their mortgage and even provides a foreclosure timeline advising borrowers of the time table regarding actions a lender will take if a mortgagee (borrower) is delinquent. Believe it or not, our area is doing much better than many other areas in the country.

One last point - we are probably in a recession at this very time. This will be confirmed by economic data yet to come in over the next number of weeks. However, based upon the actions that have been taken by the Federal Reserve, Treasury, the White House, and Congress over the last few months, this bodes very well for a recovery toward the end of the year. If you haven't already read the articles by NAR's Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, posted on this blog from NAR's website, please do so. He has been recognized by USA Today as being the 5th best Economist, based upon his accuracy. His commentaries will provide you with much perspective and reason for hope.

Lawrence Yun - Commentary Based on Latest Economic Data Released 4/3/08

Quick Take on the Economy: April 4, 2008 By NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun Employment Report

·Payroll employment (based on company survey data) fell 80,000 in March. The data was revised lower for prior months, so there have now been 3 straight months of job cuts totaling 232,000. Over a 12-month span, only 536,000 jobs have been added - compared to 2 to 3 million one-year job additions that would normally occur under normal conditions.

·Household employment (based on a survey of asking people if they have jobs) fell by 24,000.

·The unemployment rate increased to 5.1 percent from 4.8 percent the month prior. The labor force - the number of people searching for jobs -increased by 410,000 during the month.

·The construction sector took a big hit with 51,000 fewer payroll jobs and the manufacturing sector continue to bleed with 48,000 fewer jobs. The manufacturing sector has shed nearly 4 million jobs in the past 10 years.

·Jobs in the service sector rose modestly by 13,000. But the higher paying jobs in the Professional Business Service fell by 35,000 - these are the jobs that most impact office net absorption.

·Big job gains occurred in Education and Health Services, where 42,000 jobs were added. Government jobs rose by 18,000.With the weakening job market, the wage growth also slowed to $17.86, a 3.6% increase from one year ago.

·Yesterday's data on first-time and continuing jobless claims had increased notably and took place after the surveying period of today's overall report on employment. That means, that job cuts will most likely continue in the next month's employment report.

·Any good news in the data? (1) Household employment figures had been falling steeply in the past few months, but the latest decline is much more modest and household employment has shown a bit of leading information in the past about payroll employment trends; (2) slower wage growth means lower inflationary pressure, which in turn, permits more easing room for the Fed to cut interest rates What does today's data mean for REALTORS® and consumers?

·This employment report is the most closely watched economic data. On jobs, we are in a recession. Production wise, we are very close to recessionary conditions - because companies are squeezing additional output with fewer workers.

·Recession is certainly not good news. However, the housing market performed well in the last recession due to exceptionally low interest rates. Though we currently also have low rates, the confidence issue is likely to be a bigger factor this round and recession does not help.

·There is a better chance for legislation on tax credits for homebuyers.

This article is from NAR's website @ www.realtor.org Economist's Commentary 4/4/08

Where Is The Economy At Right Now - Recession or Worse?

Recap of Market News for the Week -4/3-4/7

Why the Government Rescued Bear Stearns

If you wonder why the government stepped into the U.S. securities market and performed a bailout, this is an excellent video that will help you understand why.

House Staging - A Smart Idea to Sell Listings Faster & For Higher Prices!

Though the home featured in this video is located in Southern California and unlike properties in our area, I chose it after viewing several similar videos. Why? Because the concepts are very well presented, it included advice about the inside as well as the outside of the home, and the home staging results were accomplished without any budget (no money was spent to make the home look better, yet having a budget to do so may be appropriate based upon the home and its situation).

I hope you enjoy it!